Grace Gill ~ Fertility and Economic Growth in India

Economy in India 

The economy of India is the 10th largest in the world by nominal GDP and the 3rd largest by Purchasing Power Parity (PPP). According to the IMF, India ranked 140th by nominal GDP and 129th by GPD on a per capita basis. As of 2011, India's public debt stood at 68.05% of GDP which is highest among the emerging countries. However, their inflation remains stubbornly high with 7.55% in August 2012, the highest among its BRICS counterparts. BRICS is the title of an association of emerging national economies: Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. 

India's current GDP for 2011 is $837.75

 

Since 1960, India has been on a complete upwards slope concerning GDP. Beginning with a GDP of $180.96 in 1960, in fifty years India has already risen to a GDP of $837.75. 

 India's current fertility rate for 2011 is 2.59

 

Since 1960, Indias fertility rate has decreased from 5.81 to 2.59. There is a significant decrease in child birth, which as you will see, has greatly impacted the economy. 

 Correlation between India's Fertility Rate and GDP

After looking at the historical trends in India, the country's future economic growth looks positive. As the fertility decreases, the GDP rises consistently. There is a clear correlation between fertility rates and the economy in India.

Age Distribution in India

The age group of 65+ stays consistent while the youngest, 0-14, slowly decreases. The middle age, 15-64, slowly increases as well. This is important for the economy because there are more people in the work force, which impacts the economy. With less children to care for, there is more time spent working. 

Pie Chart Breakdown of Population by Ages

This graph shows the trend over the last ten years

It's evident in the trend line that there is a negative correlation between fertility and GDP in India

In my opinion, there will be an increase in GDP per capita in India for a few more years and then will begin to plummet. The trend line shows that as the fertility rate decreases, so does the GDP - significantly, however I think there is more to it than just fertility. Though there is correlation, I think it depends on the population. As the population begins to deplete, the elderly population will rise and there will be fewer people to replace them in the work force, which will in turn create a decrease in the GDP.